For a brief time in my life I was really into card tricks. We had a player in our organization who had some good ones up his sleeve, and he shared them with me. I’ve always been a fan of magic tricks (I even put on a “Magic Show” for my parents and grandparents with my brother when we were kids…), so the card tricks caught my attention. One day I was fiddling with the cards, and I came up with an idea to explain success in sports using the deck.

How It Works

A standard deck of cards has 52 cards (26 black and 26 red). Let’s call black cards “Success” and red cards “Failure”. You can ideally define “success” and “failure” however you want them to fit within your narrative, but we are going to play this game using baseball.

Start the game using all 52 cards. Every time you do something that puts you in a better position to succeed (quality sleep, good nutrition, solid training, sound recovery, etc.), you pull out some red cards (thus increasing your chances of success). Likewise, every time you do something that puts you further from success (late night sweets, binge drinking, playing video games instead of sleeping, etc.), you pull out some black cards (thus reducing the likelihood of success). Simple enough? Okay, let’s play:

You are a starting pitcher and it’s Opening Day. You’re starting the game with the full 52-card deck. You feel great about where you are at, and your goal for the day is six scoreless innings. You draw six cards: every black (“success”) card is a scoreless inning and every red (“failure”) card is an inning you give up a run. You end up with three black cards and three red cards, meaning you went six innings and gave up three runs. Overall, not a bad Opening Day start. Now it’s time for your five-day routine. Day 1 you come in well-rested. You run hard, lift hard, and eat really well. Take two red cards out of the deck for your next start (you’ve increased the chances of success by doing everything right). Day 2 you throw a bullpen and are really happy with it. Again, you take care of business in the gym and in conditioning. Take out two more red cards. Days 3 and 4 are more of the same – great focus, great nutrition, great sleep. Take four more red cards out. Now we move onto your second start of the season, only this time you have 26 black cards and 18 red cards (you removed two red cards per day because you were focused). Let’s play again: you draw six cards, but this time you pull five reds and only one black – six innings, five runs. How can this be? You did everything right to prepare, but you didn’t have as successful of an outing as Opening Day. You get frustrated with your process and decide all the work was for nothing. This next five-day routine you do everything the opposite – you half-ass your lifting and conditioning, you eat junk food at night, you play video games, and you just genuinely seem to not care. Now you go into your third start sloppy and have 18 black cards and 26 red cards (you neglected your routine and are making this start “behind the eight-ball” so to speak). Let’s play again: this time you pull six black cards. A six-inning shutout. You think to yourself: “Well it worked this last time through so I have to do it again”. You repeat the same five-day routine: half-assed lifting and conditioning, terrible food, late-night drinking, video games, and an overall lack of focus. You never actually replenished your body and are now making this start with 15 black cards and 26 red cards. No worries though – this is your new routine. It worked last time so it HAS to work this time. But what happens? This outing you get absolutely shelled. You give up six runs in the FIRST INNING. Now you’re frantic. “What do I do? How do I get back? I need to work extra hard”. You can play this scenario out over and over. You can add/subtract cards based on: travel, time of year, quality of team you are playing, etc. The point is when you do things that help put you in a better chance to succeed you take out red cards and when you do things that hurt your chances for success you take out black cards.

Why This Works

Success is NEVER guaranteed. You can follow any “process” you want, but just because you work hard does not guarantee you will have successful outcomes. However, consistently doing the right things will give you a better OPPORTUNITY for success, and that is the name of the game. We are all going to slip up and have setbacks, but minimizing those setbacks is key. Baseball is notorious for saying, “if you can’t play hungover you won’t ever be successful”. Guys will get hammered, go 4-for-4 the next day with three doubles and think “well I did it last night so I better do it again”. After riding a hot streak for three or four days they crash and burn. This is not the best way to put yourself in a position to succeed long-term.

That’s the idea behind the card game: even when you do everything right, you still have odds of failing (success is not a guarantee) – you are simply improving your odds of succeeding. And if you do everything wrong, you can still succeed (your odds of succeeding are just simply a bit smaller).

This game can work for any sport or even any real-life situation. Want to improve your odds of succeeding at your 9-to-5 desk job? Get good sleep. Go to the gym. Go for a long walk with your dog. Get ample sunlight. Eat well. Want to improve your chances of making more free throws? Practice with a purpose. Turn off your phone at night. Limit the amount of video games you play.

I think the reason people struggle to do the right things is because they know that they do not GUARANTEE success (again they only improve your odds of success). Most people would prefer to take the easy route and have built-in excuses (“Well I didn’t sleep last night that’s why I didn’t do well”). We all know what is right and what is wrong; it’s just a matter of choosing to do so. And unless you are a super-freak or ultra-talent in your chosen profession (which you are most likely not), then making the right choices more often is the best way to improve your odds of succeeding long-term.